Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.352271 4.773509 5.244359 5.815349 6.497002 7.295302 8.317467
2024-12-29 3.830975 4.380572 5.041342 5.913733 7.067438 8.593377 10.867664
2025-01-05 3.423342 4.012401 4.752709 5.784823 7.248440 9.365715 12.936983
2025-01-12 3.124082 3.726681 4.508710 5.644483 7.345766 9.997268 14.999907
2025-01-19 2.861171 3.455084 4.243448 5.422723 7.262934 10.303263 16.607498
2025-01-26 2.751563 3.372829 4.220870 5.537777 7.705934 11.587385 20.855470
2025-02-02 2.696025 3.355942 4.283311 5.782232 8.401838 13.558588 28.409371
2025-02-09 2.620460 3.302682 4.284484 5.925712 8.947653 15.446550 38.305914
2025-02-16 2.500086 3.175527 4.162255 5.847800 9.060502 16.409561 46.694850
2025-02-23 2.399286 3.069761 4.063201 5.795781 9.212122 17.537409 58.737344
2025-03-02 2.305585 2.968451 3.962754 5.728777 9.319016 18.603314 74.523270
2025-03-09 2.224141 2.880597 3.876826 5.677571 9.449711 19.815099 98.703238
2025-03-16 2.156676 2.811767 3.819035 5.676477 9.705598 21.629074 150.550767
2025-03-23 2.113676 2.777760 3.815207 5.775986 10.221483 24.756035 333.429792
2025-03-30 2.033268 2.681697 3.702001 5.652280 10.166596 25.670987 573.193951
2025-04-06 1.956810 2.588450 3.588225 5.517196 10.060451 26.343274 1137.847202
2025-04-13 1.871675 2.478389 3.440706 5.303542 9.718265 25.787247 1567.430852
2025-04-20 1.847690 2.463509 3.453945 5.414417 10.262257 29.980677 NaN
2025-04-27 1.844651 2.481363 3.524073 5.649807 11.221589 38.022337 NaN
2025-05-04 1.825870 2.472746 3.546900 5.787851 11.945833 46.433568 NaN
2025-05-11 1.777236 2.413412 3.475721 5.712902 11.982923 49.591917 NaN
2025-05-18 1.734881 2.362855 3.417888 5.662846 12.094562 53.913829 NaN
2025-05-25 1.692856 2.311384 3.355945 5.598356 12.146423 57.984295 NaN